Chinas Ultimate Goal: Returning to the Middle Kingdom
China is aiming to regain its position as The Middle Kingdom, the center of the world. They wish to become a major political player through their military and economic prowess. They aim to gain the strength to flex their political will throughout the world. I believe their goal is to become united once again as One-China. When China totally regains its territories, such as Hong Kong, they plan on being a dominant world power once again.
Chinas main goal is to become a major player in world politics, more specifically the main player. In sorts they wish to be in the same position as the United States; they wish to be involved in all major political decisions and actions around the globe. They want governments to feel the need to o.k. their actions with them before they commit to their actions. To do this they must have military power as well as economic power. China still wants to be the middle-kingdom and the top leaders know this will take giving up short-run concessions in order to gain long-run supremacy.
China will be hurt in the short-run by increasing its economic interdependence. The removal of certain tariffs and regulations will open up the Chinese market to outside competition. Government owned companies that were losing money will not survive with out drastic changes. This will lead to high unemployment while the Chinese market transitions to this new economy. The Chinese will need a social security and public health care system to deal with the temporary unemployment. The agricultural industry will be hurt most by this new competition. In the political realm china will no longer be totally free from spiritual pollution and ideas that counter the CCPs philosophies.
The long-run benefits will greatly out weigh these costs. First and foremost they will gain market stability. WTO rules and regulations will help smooth out the effect of different policy shifts in various governments; mainly in dealing with the nuisance of the U.S.s yearly criticism of their human rights record while China attempts to regain MFN status. This greater stability will attract foreign investors in Chinas exports and Domestic enterprises. These investors will bring with them new capital, new management, access to global production and distribution, and most importantly new information and technology. These new investors will also help reform Chinas economy. Companies will now be punished or rewarded with bankruptcy or new trade depending on their management and profitability. This will motivate companies to stream line production and become more aggressive in their sales.
To attract foreign investors China will have to change or modify its foreign policy. These changes first became apparent in 1995 when China opened their doors to American movies, music, and software. Then in 2000 they promised to make their currency convertible for foreign trade. They have also continuously cut tariffs and regulations to gain admittance into the WTO.
The process by which these policies are made must also change to allow for more trade and investment. With the addition of new capital and industry, and thus new stakeholders in the Chinese market, China will have to allow for more interests to be represented. Policymaking in China must become pluralized. Public opinion will now be more important since the consequences of their actions will directly affect individual industries and workers. The process has started to become more bureaucratic and issues are now debated more openly, but top-level policy makers can still flex their political influence and direct a change. The two major players in policymaking are the MFA and MOFTEC. The Military Affairs Committee is usually an obstacle to favorable trade relations with other countries due to their fear of foreign invasion, even if it is only intellectual.
China could potentially become overly dependent on foreign countries, but will have diversified its trade so that no one country can influence their policymaking. They could also open up their nation to an overwhelming amount of new information, which can lead to an intellectual revolution. They may also lose the support of the people once they get a taste for the capitalist/ western lifestyle.
I believe that One-China is still the top priority for the PRC. Using the availability to new technology and information china will be able to build up their internal infrastructure as well as their military capabilities. This is a key stepping stone in their goal of global supremacy. They must have the ability to defend their nation, and even more so to be taken seriously when reprisal is threatened. Another key step for China is to reduce the threat of retaliation militarily and economically by the United States. This is an especially important underlying motivation to gaining the access to new technology and information.
When China gains military and economic equality with the major global powers I believe they are liable to become dangerous once again. Chinas goal is to once again be the middle kingdom, and they will not hesitate to take extreme measures to regain this glory. They are willing to take a hit in the short-run to achieve their long-run goals. The influx of new technology, information, capital, management, and industry will boost China into the 21st century and beyond. This will give them the capabilities to upgrade their internal infrastructure and their military. Their only possible restraints may be a possible dependency on foreign trade and a new influx of intellectual information. This could lead to a change in the social climate in China. Even though Top leaders still effect decision making, there will be a growing need to recognize the needs of the people. China will be constrained by their new economy, but will remain a future threat.