Nuclear Arms Control In India And The Abm Treaty Nuclear Diplomacy and Arms Control 1. There would be several advantages for the Government of India by adhering to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). For instance, adhering would ease international pressures spearheaded by the United States, Great Britain, and France. As India is just starting to become a nuclear power of its own, the already nuclear powers that be want to use India as an example to the rest of the world. As more countries become nuclear, they should sign the CTBT and follow the footsteps of the rest of the world powers. Another advantage of adhering to the CTBT is that Pakistan will also sign if India signs.
(N.B. with the stipulation that the US ratifies the treaty) If Pakistan adheres; it will be easier for the Indian government to use information obtained by national means of verification in a manner consistent with generally recognized principles of international law, including that of respect for the sovereignty of States. (CTBT Article IV #5) This means that India will be able to see how much Pakistan is adhering to the stipulations of CTBT. There are however, several disadvantages of adhering to the CTBT. For instance, if India does not adhere, the government keeps on testing; Pakistan would match test for test.
Both countries have been at odds with each other for a while. When India tested a nuclear explosion, Pakistan answered immediately with a test of their own. If India does not adhere they would be put in a costly and possibly deadly arms race with the Pakistani government. Defense spending would increase drastically on both sides. The Pakistani economy is not as strong as the Indian, which means that Pakistan will be the first to declare bankruptcy. A failed economy with an internal government in turmoil could heighten the chance of a Taleban-like group to seize power in Pakistan.
If a radical group with a hatred of the Indian government were to take power, an all-out war would be imminent, possibly nuclear. The CTBT also focuses too much on the big nuclear powers of the world. Countries such as the United States, Russia, and China are the real winners in this deal. Smaller countries such as India have to worry about threats, as the big ones do not. For example, India is in constant turmoil with Pakistan, and both are have nuclear capabilities. If India does not adhere to the CTBT, neither will Pakistan. If this were to be so, India would have to stockpile enough nuclear arms to stay on top of Pakistan.
This is relevant to the US-USSR model of deterrence. The United States wanted to have a large number of nuclear weapons to be able to back up their threat of nuclear attacks on Russian soil. If the USSR were to launch, the United States wanted to have a second strike capability which would cripple the Russian homeland, hence to deter the Russians from making a preemptive strike. India also wants to deter Pakistan from launching if neither adheres to the CTBT. India wants to continue as a nuclear power to try and deter the Pakistani government from launching into Indian Territory.
2. If the United States were to build their Anti Ballistic Missile system (ABM) in North America, it would be a clear violation of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty signed in 1972, thus forcing the U.S withdrawal from the treaty. The U.S. government point of view has been that the new ABM system will be focused on shooting down limited attacks from rogue nuclear states, considered to be North Korea, Iran, and possibly Iraq. This possible ABM system has Russia in an uproar. There are definite fears throughout the Russian government if the U.S.
builds this ABM system. For instance, with this new ABM system, the United States would have a distinct advantage in the nuclear arms division. The U.S. could possibly have a distinct first strike capability, which would be remarkably efficient. This is a valid fear among Russian officials.
The U.S. could hypothetically launch first against the Russians. Russia would then launch in retaliation to the attack. With the new ABM system set up, the United States could (hypothetically) shoot down a good number of the incoming ICBMs, absorb a diminished attack, then launch again with another arsenal of nuclear missiles. The United States takes a few hits in one attack whereas Russia takes the full brunt of two attacks. This hypothetical attack is not considered valid among U.S.
officials. They claim that the ABM system will only be a defense against a limited attack, which means defense against less than a handful of ICBMs from the rogue states. It is not meant as a defense against an attack against a whole arsenal of Russian missiles. The United States says that Russia should share some responsibility for recognizing that rapid technological change and new political realities are required changes in the ABM Treaty. With this in mind, the United States has offered to help build an ABM system in the Siberian territory of Russia in exchange for support or even modification of the treaty. The Russian government quickly shot this down, as they could not compete technically or monetarily with the United States.
This safeguard of both countries having an ABM system is sufficient from a U.S.-USSR nuclear deterrent perspective. The Cold War between the United States and Russia lasted nearly 60 years without a nuclear shot fired. This was largely because both countries were fairly balanced in the nuclear department. The arms race forced stockpiling of nuclear missiles on both sides of the Pacific. There has always been a delicate balance of power between the two States. Both Russia and the United States have the biggest nuclear arsenal around the world, and both had sufficient second-strike capabilities.
Either side was afraid to launch because they knew the other side could easily respond. The United States wants to keep this delicate balance. They want to help Russia build its own ABM system to compete with the U.S. system. If the United States is the only one with the ABM system, the balance is thrown, but if both sides are protected the balance is restored.